What is the "Red Horse and Red Sheep" cyclical year system? To understand this concept, we must begin with the ancient Chinese sexagenary cycle.
The Heavenly Stems "丙" and "丁" belong to the element of fire and are associated with the color red; the Earthly Branches "午" correspond to the horse, and "未" to the sheep. Therefore, the year of 丙午 is the "Red Horse Year," and the year of 丁未 is the "Red Sheep Year."
These two years always arrive one after the other, cycling every sixty years. The saying "Red Horse and Red Sheep Calamity" refers to the belief that during these two consecutive years, the country is prone to turmoil and disaster.
This popular account originates from Zhang Jixian, a Taoist master from Longhu Mountain during the late Northern Song Dynasty.
According to records, he once hinted to Emperor Huizong of Song to be wary of the "calamity of the red horse and red sheep." However, Emperor Huizong disregarded this warning, indulging in calligraphy, painting, and epigraphy. As a result, in 1126 (Bingwu) and 1127 (Dingwei), the Jin army marched south, capturing Emperors Huizong and Qinzong, an event known as the "Jingkang Incident," which marked the end of the prosperous Northern Song Dynasty. This catastrophe left an indelible psychological scar on the people of the Southern Song Dynasty.
More than a century later, a scholar named Chai Wang wrote a book called *Bingding Guijian*. He analyzed 21 Bingwu and Dingwei years from the reign of King Zhaoxiang of Qin to the Later Han Dynasty of the Five Dynasties period, finding that these years were mostly accompanied by war or disaster. Based on this, he submitted a memorial to Emperor Lizong of Song, hoping the court would learn from history and be prepared for potential dangers.
However, this account has been embellished with many superfluous interpretations over time. The most typical example is the Taiping Rebellion. Because the surnames of the Taiping leaders, Hong Xiuquan and Yang Xiuqing, are homophones in Chinese ("Hong Yang"), later generations associated this decade-long turmoil with the "Red Sheep Calamity."
However, looking at history, not all "Red Horse and Red Sheep" years were turbulent. For example, in 1004 (the year of Jia Chen) during the reign of Emperor Zhenzong of the Northern Song Dynasty, the Treaty of Chanyuan took place, bringing a century of peace to the Song Dynasty; and two years later, in 1006 (the year of Bing Wu), China observed a supernova explosion, which was then considered auspicious due to the appearance of the "Zhou Bo Star." Clearly, attributing the rise and fall of a nation entirely to a single year is biased.
Chai Wang's *Bing Ding Gui Jian* is more like a "warning text" written for the emperor. He didn't truly believe in any mysterious forces at play during these two years, but rather used historical patterns to advise the monarch to cultivate virtue and govern diligently. The *Siku Quanshu* (Complete Library of the Four Treasuries) also offers a fair assessment of this book, believing it to be "mostly contrived," meaning many examples are forced and far-fetched. In 2026, we will once again welcome the "Red Horse Year" (丙午年), and 2027 will be the "Red Sheep Year" (丁未年). How should we understand this ancient saying?
From today's perspective, "Red Horse and Red Sheep" is a cultural expression of the ancients' attempt to find patterns and explain the unknown when facing complex social and natural phenomena. It carries historical memory and concern for the future, but it is not some supernatural "fate."
As the ancients said, "Heaven diminishes the proud and benefits the humble; Earth changes from the proud to the humble." Rather than believing that years inherently bring good or bad fortune, it is better to believe in the dialectical wisdom that "misfortune may be a blessing in disguise, and a blessing may be a misfortune in disguise."
For ordinary people like us, the greatest lesson of "Red Horse and Red Sheep" may not be to predict good or bad fortune, but to understand that the principle of being prepared for adversity in times of peace is never outdated. Maintain a peaceful mindset, work hard, and care for your family; every year can be a good year.
